2023 NFL Season Predictions
We’re back with our annual predictions for the NFL regular season and playoffs. Over the off-season, head coaches were fired and hired, stars were traded and signed to new teams, and the newest draft class was introduced as multiple potential impact players heard their name called in Kansas City. Speaking of Kansas City, the Chiefs will look to repeat this season as Super Bowl champions and establish themselves as the first true dynasty since Brady and Belichick’s Patriots. We’ll almost certainly see a new playoff field this season, as teams on the rise will look to take the next step and reach the postseason while others will likely not replicate the success they had last season. This article will give full record predictions for every team and playoff predictions, as well as award winners. Let’s get started.
AFC East
New England Patriots (8–9)
The New England Patriots will look to rebound this year and return to the postseason after failing to reach last season with an 8–9 record. HC Bill Belichick made an interesting decision last year in bringing in former HC’s Matt Patricia and Joe Judge to run the offense. Given neither Matt Patricia nor Joe Judge had worked on the offensive side of the ball at the NFL level prior to last season, the results were as expected; really bad. It didn’t help matters that QB Mac Jones was forced to miss some time due to injuries, as well as a general lack of talent at the receiver position. Familiar face Bill O’Brien was brought in to man the offense this year, and free agents JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mike Gesicki were signed to help provide more punch to an offense that finished 26th in yards per game last season. On the defensive side, the Pats should remain solid this season after returning most of their starters from a unit that finished 8th in yards per game and 11th in points per game in 2022.
Though the defense will be solid and the offense should be better than last season with the addition of O’Brien, I don’t necessarily see an improvement on the win-loss column for this team from last season. The division continues to get stronger around New England and the schedule is brutal, especially early in the season. Given the recent lack of success against Miami and Buffalo, I don’t see them faring too well against divisional opponents this season, as they likely have the worst starting QB among the four and the worst skill players by a relatively wide margin. This team will certainly be competitive this season, but the Patriots will likely be the odd team in out a division that could certainly send three teams to the playoffs.
New York Jets (10–7)
It’s a new era for Gang Green, as the Jets made arguably the biggest move of the off-season in trading for 4-time MVP and future Hall of Fame quarterback in Aaron Rodgers. Last season, the Jets showcased their stellar 2022 draft class with major contributions from DROY CB Sauce Gardner, OROY WR Garrett Wilson, and RB Breece Hall. The defense was stellar under second-year HC Robert Saleh, as the unit transitioned from a promising unit in 2021 to an outright dominant one in 2022. The offense, however, was a different story. Despite the aforementioned contributions from rookies Wilson and Hall, the QB situation and offensive line were a mess last season and ultimately cost the team too many games in what ended up being a 7–10 season. The abysmal QB play from last season is ultimately what led to the Jets trading for Aaron Rodgers in what they hope is the missing piece in unlocking their potential as a Super Bowl threat.
While the offense should undoubtedly be better this season behind Aaron Rodgers, I still have some concerns about the unit as a whole. For one, Rodgers was not the same Rodgers that we’ve come used to seeing last season, as he battled through injuries most of the season and struggled to build a rapport with Green Bay’s talented but young receivers. We also didn’t see the same mobility from number 12 last season that has made him so special in extending plays and taking off when he needs to. New York’s offensive line is not as good Green Bay’s, and that could be an issue this season when considering Rodgers’ drop-off in mobility from last season. Additionally, NY’s best receiver from last season, Garrett Wilson, is still very young and has to transition to a new offense and new quarterback this year. The defense should be elite once again and the offense should find its footing eventually, assuming that LT Duane Brown can stay healthy and former first-round pick Mechi Becton can find a way to reinvent himself at his new position of right tackle. I do think it could be rocky early with all the transitioning on the offensive side of the ball though, and see this team likely needing some things to fall in place elsewhere at the end of the season in order to get into the playoffs.
Miami Dolphins (11–6)
The Miami Dolphins made the playoffs last season for the first time since 2016 under first-year HC Mike McDaniel. Miami’s offense was downright dangerous last year when QB Tua Tagovailoa, WR Jaylen Waddle, and newly acquired superstar WR Tyreek Hill were on the field together, as the two receivers’ speed and ability to separate was too difficult for opposing secondaries to cover. The Dolphins finished 6th in yards per game last year despite having a suspect offensive line, an ineffective running game and starting QB Tua Tagovailoa missing roughly four and a half games from concussions. The defense was middle of the pack last season despite having talent on all three levels, and new DC Vic Fangio will look to make his mark on his new squad and get the most of the unit.
Although the schedule is tough, I really like the way the Dolphins’ team looks for this season. The receiving duo of Waddle and Hill are arguably the best one-two at the position in the league, the defense is loaded with talent and Tua Tagovailoa is healthy and even took jiu jitsu classes this offseason to work on “falling” better and protecting himself from hits. Although the running game was not good last season, the team did draft Texas A&M RB Devon Achane in the 3rd round of this year’s draft, and I expect HC Mike McDaniel’s prowess in that department to show itself eventually. The team does have some injuries at the moment, notably LT Terron Armstead and newly-acquired CB Jalen Ramsey, who is expected to miss a significant amount of time, but if they can weather the storm early on, this team will likely look like one of the best teams in the league come January.
Buffalo Bills (10–7)
The Buffalo Bills had a disappointing season last year by their standards, as they fell in the divisional round to the Cincinnati Bengals after a 13–3 regular season. The defense, despite being great for most of last season, got gashed in both playoff games last year and the offense, particularly in the game against Cincinnati was unable to adjust after WR Stefon Diggs was effectively shut out of the game by the Bengals’ game plan. The offense will be fairly similar to last season, besides the promotion of second-year RB James Cook to the starting role and the addition of Utah TE Dalton Kincaid in this year’s draft. The defense is also largely the same from last season and will hope to get edge rusher Von Miller back from injury as soon as possible.
While the Bills have been a great regular season team the last four seasons, it seems like they’re starting to show people who they really are; a highly QB-dependent team who can’t run the football or stop the run when it matters. Their pass rush, while talented, can struggle to get to the opposing QB sometimes, allowing their secondary to get picked apart. Josh Allen is a superstar, Stefon Diggs is still an elite receiver, and HC Sean McDermott is still a very good coach. I just don’t know if they’ve improved enough in the areas they’ve struggled in the last couple of seasons to take the next step. I do think that DT Daquan Jones was a good signing who should help their run defense, and RB James Cook is much more dynamic and explosive than Devin Singletary and should greatly benefit from getting more touches. Still, I no longer see this team as the best in the division, which was a title they firmly held for the last three seasons.
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers (9–8)
After starting 2–6, the Steelers were able to keep the streak alive by finishing 7–2 down the stretch and recording the 16th straight season under HC Mike Tomlin at .500 or better. The return of edge-rusher T.J. Watt towards the end of the season and progression of then-rookie QB Kenny Pickett turned Pittsburgh into a completely different team by the end of the year. The defense reverted back to the elite unit fans had come accustomed to seeing at the end of last season and the offense was much more balanced, as they finally were able to start getting into a rhythm on that side of the ball under Pickett. This season, the Steelers will hope that second-year WR George Pickens continues to ascend and becomes the legit receiver option that a young QB such as Pickett needs to thrive. They also have bolstered what was a problematic offensive line last year in drafting Georgia guard Broderick Jones in the first round of the draft and signing guard Isaac Seamulo away from the Philadelphia Eagles. With T.J. Watt fully healthy coming into this season, as well as the offensive line upgrades and expected progression of Pickett and Pickens, some seem to have high hopes for the Steelers this year.
I just don’t know if I’m willing to truly buy in to this team yet. Sure the offensive line should be better this year, but I’m going to need to see them be much better in pass protection and run blocking this year to fully believe this offense can be special. Pittsburgh has struggled to run the ball over the last two years, and while RB Najee Harris has put up solid numbers in his first two seasons, he hasn’t been very efficient and has lacked the burst and big-play ability he showcased in college at Alabama. While the aforementioned defense should be stout, they are very reliant on the presence of Watt, and that’s not a great trait to have as a defense. Though the Steelers could surprise this year if everything goes well on offense and Watt stays healthy, I feel more comfortable projecting this team closer to .500 than a division winner.
Baltimore Ravens (11–6)
The Ravens spent another year dealing with injuries last season on both sides of the ball, most notable being QB Lamar Jackson, who missed the team’s final five games. Despite the injuries, Baltimore was able to stumble their way into the playoffs after holding on to an 8–4 start. This off-season, the Ravens made an effort to appease their star QB by signing him to a long-term deal making him, at the time of the signing, the highest paid player in the league by AAV. They also went out and signed WR Odell Beckham and drafted Boston College WR Zay Flowers in the first round of the draft. The team expects to have a more balanced offense under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken from Georgia. The defense remains talented in Baltimore, headlined by CB Marlon Humphrey and LB Roquan Smith. The team will hope to also get big contributions from edge-rusher Odafe Oweh and safety Kyle Hamilton, the team’s first round draft picks in 2021 and 2022, respectively.
I expect to see a fully locked-in Lamar Jackson this year in what should be a more pass-happy offense this year under Monken. The aforementioned receiver additions this off-season, as well as former All-Pro tight-end Mark Andrews, should allow Jackson to potentially have his best passing season as a pro. Defensively, the secondary will need to hold up their end of the bargain if this team wants to be a true contender this year. Despite the talent, this unit has proved to be the achilles heel of the defense at times and will need to be better in a conference that features elite quarterback talent. All things considered, Baltimore should be one of the top teams in the AFC this year, and if they can avoid major injuries, should be a real threat to win the division and potentially get a bye in the first round.
Cleveland Browns (8–9)
The Browns probably expected last season to be a little choppy considering they would not get QB Deshaun Watson until Week 12 of the season. What the Browns likely did not expect, is backup QB Jacoby Brissett leading the offense quite well to start the season and Watson actually being the one to struggle at the position. The Browns will hope that they get a version of Watson this year that is closer to what he was on the Texans, as he was able to spend a full, normal offseason this year with the team. The defense, which was solid last year but bad against the run, will hope that the addition of defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson will bolster their line and make them tougher against opposing ground games. Edge-rusher Zadarius Smith was also brought in to fortify the other pass-rushing position on a line that features superstar Myles Garrett.
It’d be hard for Watson to be worse than what he was last year, and I do think he’ll be better this year as he becomes more familiar with the offense. I also think that the defense should be a top-end unit this season under the tutelage of veteran coordinator Jim Schwartz. At the end of the day, this is still a very tough division, and at this point I trust the personnel of the other three teams in the North more than Cleveland’s. While their defense is good, it may still be the worst in the division this year, and their offense also has the most question marks. Combine that with a tough schedule, and Cleveland likely ends up with a similar record as last year, even if they look more competitive and balanced as a team.
Cincinnati Bengals (10–7)
The Cincinnati Bengals returned to the AFC Championship game last year and narrowly lost to the eventual champion Kansas City Chiefs, which was actually the first time the team lost to Kansas City under QB Joe Burrow. The offense was stellar again last year behind Burrow and receivers Jamarr Chase and Tee Higgins. This was in spite of an offensive line that was rather underwhelming again and a mediocre season from RB Joe Mixon. That being said, Cincinnati was able to run the ball effectively in the postseason last year and should be better along the line with the addition of tackle Orlando Brown. The defense’s strength is in its front seven, which features a good pass rush led by Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard and a suffocating rush defense.
I fear the Bengals much more as a postseason team than I do a regular season team. While they can beat you in different ways, they don’t have an elite trait that will give them the edge week in and week out. Joe Burrow is great, but sometimes the line doesn’t hold up. The defense is usually good, but the secondary can be leaky at times. This is a very tough division, and the Bengals don’t actually match up great with their divisional foes due to their offensive line issues and the great pass rushers the North have. It would not surprise me if this team starts out a little slow and don’t exactly look like worldbeaters before setting in and claiming a playoff spot.
AFC South
Houston Texans (5–12)
The Houston Texans had an exciting off-season as they hired a new head coach and also found potential franchise players on both sides of the ball at number two and three overall in this year’s draft. San Francisco defensive coordinator and former Texans LB Demeco Ryans was brought in to lead the squad, and Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud and edge-rusher Will Anderson were drafted with back-to-back picks in what the team hopes will be building blocks for a young team. The Texans were terrible last season, so there’s a lot of work to do for Ryans as a first-year coach. However, they do have some solid players at important positions, as LT Laremy Tunsil is still considered one of best at what he does and 2022 first-round pick CB Derek Stingley showed promise last season. RB Dameon Pierce, another member of the 2022 draft class, also showed he’s capable of being a lead back in what was a solid season last year.
Enough with the promising tidbits about this team. Demeco Ryans will leave his footprint on the defensive identity of this team with time, but there are too many holes on that side of the ball to keep them in games this season. I like the outlook of C.J. Stroud as well in the league, but I don’t expect him to be great in his rookie season. A solid season for this team would be an improvement on the defensive side of the ball and some flashes from Stroud to suggest he can be a franchise quarterback. Expecting much beyond that would likely be asking for too much.
Indianapolis Colts (6–11)
The Indianapolis Colts decided they needed a fresh start this off-season in parting ways with former HC Frank Reich and finally getting off the veteran QB carousel in drafting Anthony Richardson from Florida with the fourth overall pick. Former Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen was brought in as head coach to help mentor Richardson after working wonders with Jalen Hurts in Philly. Steichen unfortunately walked into some drama in his first off-season as head coach, as star RB Jonathan Taylor has expressed his displeasure with his contract situation and will now miss the team’s first four games at least after being placed on the PUP list. On defense, the Colts were average last season in yards per game, however they were tied for the third worst in the league in points per game. They will certainly benefit from the return of All-Pro LB Shaq Leonard, who missed nearly all of last season with an injury, but second-year DC Gus Bradley and this unit would benefit greatly if they can figure out how to force more turnovers this season.
I think it will be hard for Richardson to be great in Indy right away. The aforementioned Taylor and his contract situation is a large storm cloud over the offense right now, and they will undoubtedly be in a worse spot if they do decide to keep him out or trade him. The receiving core, while promising with Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce and rookie Josh Downs from UNC, is not proven yet and will need time with Richardson before they truly start to gel. It will likely be a long season in Indianapolis for newcomers Steichen and Richardson, but the selection of Richardson tells you that the front office doesn’t necessarily aim to be competitive this season anyway, as he’s more of a long-term project.
Tennessee Titans (7–10)
The Titans started the season in 2022 looking like the same team that people had come to known from the previous three seasons. They were winning games by being stingy on defense, taking advantage of their opportunities and wearing down teams late in the game behind star RB Derrick Henry. Then the second half of the season happened. After starting 7–3, the Titans proceeded to lose the next seven games, as their offense went from respectable to anemic and was only able to score more than 16 points a single time during the stretch. Part of the reason for the offense’s collapse was the injury to Ryan Tannehill, who missed the team’s final three games but is healthy and ready to go this year. The team also signed veteran receiver DeAndre Hopkins to help their offense and add some punch to their receiving unit, which is still pretty uninspiring behind second-year player Treylon Burks. The defense is very solid up front with Jeffrey Simmons, Harold Landry and Denico Autry, but the secondary was a huge issue for the team last year, and will need to be better this year to have a chance at the playoffs.
Despite the arrival of Hopkins, I question how much Ryan Tannehill has left in the tank and his ability to lead a playoff offense at this point in his career. Derrick Henry is not getting any younger either, and it’s unknown if he can handle another huge workload this year should the passing game prove uninspiring. The Titans’ schedule isn’t particularly daunting, but they’ve shown the propensity to lose to bad teams in recent seasons and I don’t necessarily expect this season to be different. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Titans look towards transitioning to the future on the offensive side after what may a disappointing season.
Jacksonville Jaguars (12–5)
The Jaguars were ahead of schedule last year, as they returned to the playoffs for the first time since 2018 behind first-year HC Doug Pederson and second-year QB Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence looked much more comfortable last year in Pederson’s offense and did a great job facilitating and getting outside of the pocket to make plays, similar to how he played when he was at Clemson. Jacksonville actually won a game last year in the playoffs as well, coming all the way back for a massive comeback win against the Chargers before losing in a tough battle against Kansas City in the divisional round. This season, another weapon for Trevor Lawrence will be joining the offense in WR Calvin Ridley, who was forced to sit out all of last season after violating the league’s gambling policy.
I would agree with those who think the Jaguars are an easy pick to win the AFC South this year. Sure, there are still some holes along the offensive line and the defense wasn’t great last year. But the difference in talent at quarterback and offense as a whole compared to the rest of the division is massive. Ridley has looked great in camp so far, and rookie RB Tank Bigsby looks like he can add another dimension to the running game to complement Travis Etienne. The aforementioned issues along the offensive line and defense will limit the team’s ability to go deeper into the playoffs this year if they don’t improve in those departments, but this should be a very solid regular season team in 2023 and will almost certainly be hosting a playoff game again in January.
AFC West
Denver Broncos (8–9)
Russell Wilson’s first season in Denver was an outright disaster. After being traded from Seattle following 10 seasons and nine trips to the Pro Bowl, Wilson looked like a shell of himself in 2022 under first-year HC Nathaniel Hackett. To be fair to Wilson, nothing went well on the offensive side of the ball last year for the Broncos. RB Javonte Williams went down for the year after playing just four games and the receiving corps was banged up last year. On top of that, Nathaniel Hackett proved to be nowhere near ready to coach an NFL team, as the team had to hire a clock-management strategist due to the botched late-game situations by the coach early on in the season. On the bright side, the defense was very good last year, but that was to be expected considering that unit had not been an issue in previous seasons. To try and unlock the former greatness of Wilson, the team decided to hire HC Sean Payton out of retirement.
I’m personally not buying that Payton can come in and fix this team in one season. While having Hackett at head coach certainly did no favors for Wilson, there is some real concern about his sudden unwillingness to move outside of the pocket and scramble to extend plays and find guys down field, which was what made him special in Seattle. The offensive line, which should be improved with the addition of Mike McGlinchey and return of Garett Bolles from injury, will still need to find a way to protect Wilson and allow the running game to set the tone, which is what Sean Payton wants. I can’t just completely forget about the monstrosity that was the Denver Broncos’ offense last season. It will be better this year for sure, but not improved enough to turn this squad into a playoff team.
Las Vegas Raiders (6–11)
The Las Vegas Raiders had a disappointing 2022 in HC Josh McDaniels’ first season with the team. The defense was abysmal as usual last year despite a great individual season from superstar pass-rusher Maxx Crosby. And the offense, despite great seasons from RB Josh Jacobs and WR Davante Adams, was not very consistent as Derek Carr appeared to take a slight step backwards in McDaniels’ offense. The Raiders must’ve sensed that Carr wasn’t a great fit in the new HC’s scheme, as the front office decided to release him over the off-season in an attempt to save some money. Veteran QB Jimmy Garoppolo was brought in to replace Carr as someone who is familiar with McDaniels from the two’s time in New England.
Being completely honest, this seems like a team who doesn’t seem to have a real plan: long-term or short-term. The Raiders’ front office essentially decided that Josh McDaniels, a head coach who has proven nothing in this league, was more likely to lead them to success than Carr, assuming it could not be done with the two working together. Some players understandably didn’t respond too well to the departure of their former QB, most notably Davante Adams, and Josh Jacobs only recently returned to the team after holding out essentially the entirety of camp over contract disputes. The defense is still bad, especially the secondary, and while I credit them for trying to address that unit with the addition of Marcus Peters, I don’t think a corner on the wrong side of 30 is going to drastically change things. Jimmy G may be better suited in McDaniels’ offense due to his accuracy and proficiency in short-game passing, but I also think this will likely take away from the big-play ability they had with Carr. Maybe the Raiders are gearing up for a high draft spot and potential pick at a franchise QB in next year’s draft, cause they certainly aren’t sniffing the playoffs with this team.
Kansas City Chiefs (13–4)
The Kansas City Chiefs apparently did not miss WR Tyreek Hill last season, as the team won another Super Bowl behind MVP-winner Patrick Mahomes and the league’s top ranked offense. The defense took another step last year under DC Steve Spagnuolo, as the team finished near the top half of the league behind stud DT Chris Jones and phenomenal seasons from linebackers Willie Gay and rookie Nick Bolton. The Chiefs shouldn’t look too different this year, as the only pieces they really lost from the last year’s offense were WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman, who were solid last year for the offense but replaceable. Second-year receiver Skyy Moore is expected to be the top receiver now and the team also hopes that rookie WR Rashee Rice from SMU can contribute.
There seem to be writers and analysts every year that will predict another team winning this division other than Kansas City, usually citing improvements that other teams in the division have made while overstating losses and/or changes in the Chiefs’ roster from season to season. For me though, I do not see a reason as to why this team will not win the division again this year. The combination of Mahomes-Kelce-Reid on the offense has simply been unstoppable since its inception, and I don’t think that’s changing any time soon. I also think the defense is underrated and really starting to turn a corner as a unit, as they have young players in all three levels who can really be difference-makers. There is competition in the division for sure, which we will get to next, but there is strong reason to believe that Kansas City will come out on top and once again be a one seed in the playoffs.
Los Angeles Chargers (11–6)
The Chargers were able to get to the playoffs last year with a 10–7 record, good enough for the 5 seed. While this was absolutely a step in the right direction for the team, they blew the biggest halftime lead in postseason history in their eventual loss to the Jaguars and actually seemed to take a step back last year in many regards. The offense was not nearly as good in 2022 as it looked in 2020 and 2021, and a good part of that was due to the injury bug once again plaguing the team. Herbert dealt with some injuries of his own last year despite not missing a game. On defense, the unit was largely mediocre and also dealt with a lot of injuries, mainly edge-rusher Joey Bosa and corner J.C. Jackson. The front office decided to make a change at OC in bringing in former Cowboys coordinator Kellen Moore, someone whose scheme they feel much better fits with Justin Herbert’s abilities.
I think the addition of Moore at OC is going to do wonders for this offense. The dink and dunk passing scheme and ineffective run game from 2022 should be much more explosive this year, and Herbert should have the most talented receiving corps he’s had since entering the league with a healthy Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and first-round draft pick Quentin Johnston out of TCU. The defense, despite being mediocre last year, is very talented and should be able to hold up their side of their bargain assuming they avoid major injuries to critical positions (this has been much easier said than done for this cursed team). Herbert is now locked in long-term after signing a record-breaking contract in the off-season, and I think this may finally be the year that the team catches some breaks and puts together a season that fully showcases their talent and potential. The division will be tough and their schedule is pretty brutal though, which is why I’m only projected one more win than last year.
NFC East
New York Giants (9–8)
The Giants were a surprise team last year in Brian Daboll’s first season as a head coach. QB Daniel Jones had his best season as a pro, posting career marks in both passer rating and turnovers responsible for, as he seemed much more comfortable in Daboll and OC Mike Kafka’s offense than he had been in previous years with questionable playcallers. Saquon Barkley also returned to the dominance we saw from him in his rookie and sophomore season. This year, the Gmen will look to continue progressing after Daniel Jones was signed long-term in the off-season and some new weapons were brought in for Jones, the most notable being TE Darren Waller. The team also hopes that first-round picks Kayvon Thibodeaux and Evan Neal will take the next step in their second years.
There’s reason to believe that there won’t be negative regression for the Giants in 2023. They have a great LT in Andrew Thomas, a great defensive line headlined by Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams, and a good QB in Jones who can be even better as he gets more familiar within the offense. They also have a true weapon in the passing game in Darren Waller, who will present mismatch problems for opposing defenses with his size, speed, and ability to line up anywhere on the field. There are still some holes on the team. The secondary was not great last year and will be relying on first-round corner Deonte Banks from Maryland to contribute immediately. The offensive line is also still not great, despite the ascension of the aforementioned Andrew Thomas into elite territory. The schedule is tough, and it’ll be tough to have the same close-game success they had in 2022. That being said, seven teams have to make the playoffs in the weaker NFC, and I think the Gmen will be one of them.
Washington Commanders (6–11)
The Commanders have been a middle of the road team since Ron Rivera took the helm in 2020, and their record last year was a great example of that at 8–8–1. The team decided to move on from both Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinecke at QB this year and have promoted second-year player Sam Howell to the starting spot. Arguably the biggest addition for the team this offseason was the hiring of OC Eric Bienemy from Kansas City, who the front office believes will add another element to an offense that has been mediocre for the most part in recent years. The defense was phenomenal in 2022, especially their secondary, and incoming first-rounder Emmanuel Forbes should only help strengthen the unit. The return of Chase Young also should be a boost to the pass-rush that finished towards the middle of the pack last year with 41 sacks.
Despite the arrival of Bienemy, I’m not sure yet Sam Howell is an upgrade at QB, and I also don’t see a real difference maker in the running back room, as neither running back Antonio Gibson or Brian Robinson provide a bunch of juice at the position. While I am excited for the second season of WR Jahan Dotson, I just don’t see this team being great in 2023. The defense will be good for sure, but I don’t think it will make up for the deficiencies on the other side of the football. They appear to be the worst team in the division on paper and, barring a breakout season from Howell in Bienemy’s offense, will likely finish at the bottom this year.
Dallas Cowboys (12–5)
The Cowboys went 12–5 for the second straight year in 2022 and were able to get to the divisional round before falling in San Francisco to the 49ers. The offense was once again very good despite backup QB Cooper Rush being forced to start four games and starter Dak Prescott having a career high in interceptions. This off-season, Brian Schottenheimer was brought in to replace Kellen Moore at the OC position, although HC Mike McCarthy will supposedly be the one calling plays. The defense was opportunistic under Dan Quinn, as they forced the most turnovers a game last year and were great situationally. Veteran CB Stephon Gilmore was brought in to play alongside Trevon Diggs in the secondary in hopes of strengthening the unit.
The Cowboys are a rather tough team to gauge going into this season. Dak Prescott was forced to miss time last year and was uncharacteristically careless with the ball when he was on the field, which I assume will not be the case this year. However, the team almost certainly downgraded at OC with the departure of Kellen Moore. They also don’t have a proven RB on the team behind Tony Pollard, who will be tasked with carrying a big load this year despite not yet having topped 200 carries yet in a season in his career. I do think that veteran WR Brandin Cooks will be big for the passing game. I also think the offensive line will be better with a healthy Tyron Smith and expected improvement from LG Tyler Smith. As long as they don’t turn the ball over and continue to cause problems on defense, they’ll likely be in a good spot. My guess is that Dak rises to the occasion after a disappointing personal season in 2022 and the team takes the NFC East title.
Philadelphia Eagles (11–6)
The Eagles had a magical season in 2022, as they improved from 9–8 to 13–4 and got all the way to the Super Bowl before losing in heartbreaking fashion. QB Jalen Hurts truly arrived last season, as he was an elite dual-threat weapon at the position who arguably could’ve won MVP over Patrick Mahomes if he wasn’t forced to miss a few games due to injury. The defense was also lights out, as they finished second in yards allowed per game and first in sacks led by Haason Reddick. No major changes were made this off-season for Philadelphia, though stud coordinators Jonathan Gannon and Shane Steichen did both leave for head coaching jobs.
So what’s the reason for Philly regressing this year? Well, it’s very hard to win 14 games in an NFL season. And while I expect the Eagles to be very good once again this season, I can almost guarantee they won’t match that win total in 2023, especially considering the tougher schedule. I do think that losing two great young coordinators in Gannon and Steichen could have an impact this year on the team, as there will be some adjusting on both sides of the ball. It’s also hard to not realize that some of the team’s best players on both sides of the ball, particularly along the line, are getting older. C Jason Kelce and RT Lane Johnson are future hall of famers, but they’re well into their 30s now. Defenders Brandon Graham, Fletcher Cox, Darius Slay and James Bradberry are all over 30 as well. The team has too much talent and and Jalen Hurts is too good of a player and leader for this team to not be in the playoffs again this year, but don’t be surprised if they take a slight step back.
NFC North
Chicago Bears (6–11)
The Bears were a terrible football team in 2022, as they lost ten straight games to finish their season at 3–14. But it was also somewhat a positive season for Chicago in that they got the number one draft pick and QB Justin Fields did show flashes, especially with his legs, of being a player who can be a real difference maker at the position. The first pick was traded to Carolina for a package that included WR D.J. Moore, a proven high-end receiver who can come in and be your WR1. The defense was the worst in the league last year, so the team brought in linebackers T.J. Edwards and Trumaine Edmunds to help strengthen it as well as edge-rusher Yannick Ngakoue.
The team should be better this year, at least by record, but I still think the defense is too young and there are too many questions surrounding the offensive line, despite drafting RT Darnell Wright in the first round. Justin Fields will need time to throw the football to really progress, and I’m not convinced they’ll be able to consistently provide that for him this year. I would be surprised if this team finished close to .500 this year.
Detroit Lions (10–7)
The Lions last year took a huge step forward in HC Dan Campbell’s second year, as they went 9–8 and narrowly missed the playoffs, not being officially eliminated until minutes before their last game. A big reason for the improvement was their great offense, as they finished top five in both yards and points in a great season from veteran QB Jared Goff and breakout year from WR Amon-Ra St. Brown. The defense was also much better down the stretch as well, as their run defense became a strength and they found an identity on that side of the ball. Detroit spent two of their first three draft picks on defenders in LB Jack Campbell and saftety Brian Branch and expect both to contribute immediately. RB D’Andre Swift was traded to the Philadelphia and Jamaal Williams left in free agency, but first-round pick Jahmyr Gibbs should be able to slide right in and make an impact in his place, as well as free agent pickup David Montgomery.
I expect the offense to once again be great this year, although someone on the outside other than St. Brown will need to step up early on while WR Jameson Williams serves his six-game suspension. It will be interesting to see how the defense performs this year. They’re starting to stack talent at positions and now they need to put it together and field a respectable unit in order to finally get back in the playoffs. I think this is the year it all comes together for Detroit.
Minnesota Vikings (8–9)
The Vikings surprised some people last year in winning the division with a 13–4 record. The team very much enjoyed playing in close games, as they went a perfect 11–0 in games decided by one score. QB Kirk Cousins looked pretty comfortable in new HC Kevin O’Connell’s offense and WR Justin Jefferson continued to dominate in a season where he established himself as the top receiver in the game. The defense, on the other hand, was absolutely terrible and ultimately cost them in the playoff loss against the New York Giants. This year, Minnesota hopes to field a more balanced team and not have to rely on the offense outscoring teams this year.
While the defense will likely be better under new DC Brian Flores, I think there are too many issues on that side of the ball for the team to win double-digit games again this year. I don’t expect them to fare as well in one score games this year, mainly because they went undefeated in them last year and it is somewhat random how teams fare in close games, regardless of how good or bad they are. This team will still be a tough out most weeks, but I don’t see Big Kirko and Minnesota returning to the playoffs this year.
Green Bay Packers (11–6)
The Jordan Love era has begun in Green Bay. The franchise decided to trade their hall of fame QB Aaron Rodgers after a couple off-seasons of speculation about his future with the team. It felt like the right time to move him if there was ever going to be one, as the team missed the playoffs last year after dealing with injuries all season and finishing with an 8–9 record. The team ultimately suffered too many injuries on both sides of the ball and didn’t seem to find their rhythm until it was too late.
Despite the transition from an all-time quarterback to a relatively unknown one in Love, I actually think the Packers will be a better team this year. For one, they’re healthy on the defensive side coming into the season and will have LT David Bakhtiari ready to play Week 1. Second, young receivers Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs should only get better this year after being thrown in the fire last year and getting valuable playing time. Lastly, I think Jordan Love is actually pretty good. Talent was never the issue with him and he was able to sit and learn from one of the best for three seasons. With the pressure off the team now that Rodgers is gone and it no longer feeling like Super Bowl or bust every season, expect Love and this Packers team to surprise some people and take the division.
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4–13)
The Tom Brady era in Tampa has come to an end, as the GOAT QB announced his retirement in the off-season. The Bucs will attempt to replace him with Baker Mayfield, who was brought in this off-season and was able to beat out Kyle Trask for the starting job. This team, despite making the playoffs last year, was not great as their offense struggled to protect Brady and their run game was anemic. The defense, while still pretty stout, was not as dominant as it was in 2021 or in the second half of 2020.
Unfortunately for Tampa, I expect the train to fully go off the rails this year. Given the struggles they had last year, the offense should be even worse this year now that Baker Mayfield is in charge. I don’t think he was ever seen as someone who could carry a team, and they’re too bad along the line to expect him to make plays and move the chains when even Brady often couldn’t last year. The defense is also getting older and should continue to regress this year, as their pass-rushing ability as a team has started to fade. I expect the Bucs to be picking near the top of the draft in 2024, and given the limited moves made this off-season, maybe that was the plan all along.
Carolina Panthers (8–9)
After a 7–10 season, the Panthers traded up to the one spot in this year’s draft to get their QB of the future in Bryce Young and hope he will establish himself as their first answer to the position since Cam Newton. The team also brought in HC Frank Reich and an entirely new coaching staff filled with head coaching experience. Young will have his work cut out for him in Year 1, as the receiving corps is pretty thin after having to trade star receiver D.J. Moore in order to move up in the draft and get him. The offensive line made big strides in the second half last season and hope to finally have the position group set, although their showing as a unit so far this pre-season has been shaky at best. The defense is young but talented, and have impact players at all three levels in edge-rusher Brian Burns, linebackers Frankie Luvu and Shaq Thompson, and CB Jaycee Horn. Still, it remains to be seen how the group will look in new DC Ejiro Evero’s scheme as they move from a 4–3 to a 3–4.
I do think this team will be more fun to watch this season and should be more competitive under Frank Reich, but they still have too many holes to be considered a playoff team. The offensive line still appears to potentially be an issue and that ultimately will be the decider on this team’s hopes this year. Maybe Bryce will acclimate quickly to the NFL game and overcome the deficiencies elsewhere on the offense, and maybe the defense will be better than just above-average. But I think this team is still a year or two away most likely.
Atlanta Falcons (7–10)
The Falcons were a feisty team last season, as they were able to stay in the hunt for most of the year before ending with a 7–10 record and missing the playoffs. The team, after giving rookie QB Desmond Ridder four starts at the end of the last season, have given him the keys to the offense this season and hope he can prove to them that he’s a franchise quarterback. To help him out, Atlanta drafted stud Texas RB Bijan Robinson in the first round to pair with Tyler Allgeier to form a dynamic running game. TE Kyle Pitts heads into the season healthy and second-year receiver Drake London will look to be more consistent this year. The defense was bad last year but were active in free agency on that side of the ball, bringing in edge-rushers Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree to help strengthen the pass-rush. They also have a very good young corner in A.J. Terrell who should continue to get better.
Will all that being said, I see this team being pretty mediocre this season. Although the run game should be near the top of the league, I haven’t seen enough from Ridder to believe he’s the answer at quarterback. The defense should be improved but I’m not buying the hype that they’re going to be a completely transformed unit. Another season of mediocrity is likely on the docket for the Falcons.
New Orleans Saints (10–7)
The New Orleans Saints never really found their footing in HC Dennis Allen’s first season, as injuries to the quarterback position found them stumbling to a 7–10 season. The Saints hope to have found their answer at the game’s most important position in Derek Carr, who was signed by the team after being released by the Raiders. The team should also have WR Michael Thomas available this season, who has missed the better part of the last three seasons. The defense should continue to be a very good unit, although it should be noted that the unit as a whole is getting older.
That being said, the Saints appear to have the most complete roster in the division now with Carr on the roster. I think Carr will enjoy finally having a good defense and also will have a plethora of weapons on offense in the aforementioned Thomas, Chris Olave, and Alvin Kamara, among others. The defense should be the best in the division as long as they don’t start to show their age this year. The South won’t necessarily take a great team to win it, and I think the Saints will do enough to ultimately end up on top.
NFC West
Los Angeles Rams (6–11)
The Rams were a surprisingly terrible football team in 2022, as they finished with a 5–12 record the year after winning the Super Bowl. The team was decimated by injuries on both sides of the ball, the most notable being to QB Matthew Stafford and WR Cooper Kupp. Despite the injuries, it was evident early on in the season when they were relatively healthy that they weren’t the same team as the one that won it all the year before. The offensive line was awful in 2022 after losing their leader in LT Andrew Whitworth to retirement after the 2021 season. The team also didn’t have Odell Beckham Jr. or Von Miller last year, another two players that played a huge role in their Super Bowl season.
This season, the Rams are already dealing with injuries again as Cooper Kupp reportedly suffered a hamstring injury and is questionable to start the 2023 season. Given he is Matthew Stafford’s main weapon and the best player on the offense, the offense should struggle again in his absence. The defense is okay and still has Aaron Donald, but it’s not a unit that will carry them to many victories. This will likely be another rough season for the Rams. But hey, at least they got back their first round draft pick for 2024.
Arizona Cardinals (4–13)
The Cardinals had one of the more disappointing seasons across the league last year. After breaking through and getting to the playoffs with an 11–6 record in 2021, Arizona came crashing back down to earth last year en route to a 4–13 record. There really weren’t many great qualities or bright spots with this squad last year, which is typical for a four-win team. That being said, this team may be even worse in 2023. Kyler Murray will miss a significant portion of this season as he battles back from an ACL injury he suffered during the 2022 season. The team also decided to let go of top receiver DeAndre Hopkins in order to save cap space. The starting QB in Week 1 will either be career backup Josh Dobbs or 5th-round rookie Clayton Tune. They also have a new head in defensive-minded Jonathan Gannon.
I don’t really feel the need to further explain why this team will likely be horrific in the upcoming season. A positive season would be getting some good contributions from some of their younger players such as Cameron Thomas, Trey McBride, Paris Johnson and B.J. Ojulari, while also not winning many games. Cause depending on how Kyler Murray responds after the ACL injury, this team may need a full-on rebuild in 2024 and will need the highest pick they can in order to do so.
Seattle Seahawks (8–9)
The Seahawks were a suprisingly good team in 2022, as they were able to make the playoffs after trading away their star franchise quarterback in Russell Wilson and replacing him with Geno Smith, someone who hadn’t had much success as a starter since entering the league in 2013. Geno was great in 2022, throwing for over 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns while having a passer rating over 100. The team also got great contributions from their 2022 rookie class, as OT Charles Cross, RB Kenneth Walker III, and CBs Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant all made an impact immediately at their respective positions. The team will hope to get a similar impact out of their rookies this year, notably CB Devon Witherspoon and WR Jaxson Smith-Njigba, who were both taken in the first round.
Despite the success last season, I’m not entirely sure if Geno Smith will be able to replicate the efficiency and overall production he had in 2022. The offensive line is also still a little shaky and the team also struggles with their pass rush in getting to the opposing quarterback. I think it’s entirely possible this team takes a slight step back in 2023, despite the perceived momentum the team seems to have going into this season. If Geno Smith plays like he did last year, this team will likely be in the playoffs again. I think we’ll likely see some regression though and believe this team will narrowly miss the playoffs in 2023.
San Francisco 49ers (10–7)
The 49ers were a much different-looking team at the end of the 2022 season than they were in the beginning. After starting the season with Jimmy Garoppolo at QB and Elijah Mitchell at RB, the team finished the season with 7th-round pick Brock Purdy as the starting quarterback and All-Pro runningback Christian McCaffrey leading the running game. The Niners finished strong in 2022, winning their last 10 regular season games and making it all the way to the NFC Championship before ultimately falling to the Eagles after Purdy suffered an elbow injury in the first half. Purdy was great in Shanahan’s offense last year, as his mobility, quick release and accuracy in the short to medium-range passing game were tailor-made for the head coach’s system. After some speculation over the offseason on who would be the starter this year between Purdy and 2021 first-round pick Trey Lance, the team decided to trade Lance to the Cowboys after naming Purdy the starter.
I’m not sure how Niner fans feel after everything shook out this off-season, but I’m skeptical on whether they’ll be able to replicate the success they had last season. Purdy was really good as a rookie, but he also rarely had to deal with adversity as the team was usually playing with a lead and in cruise-control mode. I’m curious to see how Purdy responds this year if he’s tasked with leading the team from behind in games this year, as he’ll need to be more aggressive in throwing the ball downfield. The team also got a fully healthy from McCaffrey last season, which hasn’t been the norm for the back in recent years. The offensive line will likely take a step back this season after losing Mike McGlinchey in free agency, which could exacerbate any potential growing pains Purdy may have in his second season. This team has too much talent to not be a good team, and this division may sneakily be one of the worst in football in 2023. However, I don’t expect to see the same level of dominance we saw from San Francisco this year as we saw at times in 2022, as there will likely be more scratching and clawing needed in getting to the playoffs in 2023.
Playoff Predictions
Wild-Card Round
(2) Green Bay Packers over (7) New York Giants
The Giants have had some success in the past in Lambeau in the playoffs, but I don’t think they’re so lucky this team around. The better team moves on here, as Jordan Love continues his surprise season and keeps the Packers rolling.
(6) Detroit Lions over (3) San Francisco 49ers
The defensive front for San Francisco will be a test for Detroit for sure, but I like the Lions’ chances in this matchup. The fact that they’ll be avoiding freezing temperatures in the Bay Area will help Jared Goff and the offense’s chances of moving on.
(5) Philadelphia Eagles over (4) New Orleans Saints
Another “upset” in the first round of the NFC playoffs. Not really though. Eagles would absolutely be favored in this matchup and shouldn’t have much trouble dispatching Derek Carr and the Saints, as they’re the better offensive and defensive team.
(2) Jacksonville Jaguars over (7) Cincinnati Bengals
The Jaguars’ ascent continues in this playoff scenario, as they have the offensive firepower to go toe-to-toe with Joe Burrow and the Bengals and will be playing at home. The defense is able to make a few plays and the Bengals finish their just ok season with a disappointing loss.
(3) Miami Dolphins over (6) Buffalo Bills
In a rematch over last year’s wild-card round game, the Dolphins take this one as Tua will be healthy leading the offense and they’ll be playing at home. Miami’s weapons and improved defense will be too much for Josh Allen and the Bills.
(5) Los Angeles Chargers over (4) Baltimore Ravens
This would make for a fantastic wild-card game. Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson battling it out after both having career seasons. I like the Chargers’ chances of eking one out with a field goal at the end and winning a playoff game for the first time since 2018, coincidentally in the same place they last won one.
Divisional Round
(1) Dallas Cowboys over (6) Detroit Lions
In what will be a very exciting offensive game, the Cowboys end up making a couple plays on the defensive end that ultimately prove to be the decider, as I trust their defense more than Detroit’s, especially at home. Dak and Dallas move on to the NFC Championship game for the first time in a very long time.
(5) Philadelphia Eagles over (2) Green Bay Packers
This one can really go either way, but I’ll go with the team with the better roster and more playoff experience in the Eagles. Jalen Hurts makes enough plays for the offense and Jordan Love ultimately makes a timely mistake that seals Green Bay’s fate.
(3) Miami Dolphins over (2) Jacksonville Jaguars
An all-Florida divisional round matchup, and a quarterback rematch from the 2019 National Championship between Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence and the Jaguars end up not being able to keep up with Miami’s explosive offense, and the Dolphins get to the AFC Championship game for the first time in 31 years.
(1) Kansas City Chiefs over (5) Los Angeles Chargers
This should be another thrilling game between these two teams, as has become the norm since Herbert and Mahomes took over in Los Angeles and Kansas City, respectively. Unfortunately for the Chargers, they’ll be playing in Arrowhead, and the home crowd, frigid weather and Patrick Mahomes will prove to be too much for them.
Conference Championship Round
(1) Dallas Cowboys over (5) Philadelphia Eagles
Philly returns to the NFC Championship game and Dallas makes its first appearance since the turn of the century. In the rubber match between these two NFC East foes, Dak and the Cowboys make just enough plays on offense and win the NFC title as they head to Las Vegas to take on the AFC representative.
(1) Kansas City Chiefs over (3) Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins leave the state of Florida for the first time in the playoffs in this matchup as they take on the defending champs. Despite the pass rush making plays to keep Miami in the game, Tua and the offense don’t hold up their end of the bargain and the Dolphins ultimately fall to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Super Bowl 58 is set.
Super Bowl
(1) Kansas City Chiefs over (1) Dallas Cowboys
Two one seeds square off for the second year in a row in the sport’s biggest game. Dallas’ offense will benefit from playing indoors in this one and Micah Parsons will make his presence felt. In the end though, the better quarterback in Mahomes makes more plays than Dak and ultimately leads his team to victory, winning their third Super Bowl in four years and officially becoming a dynasty.
Major Award Winners
OPOY: Ceedee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys (107 receptions, 1,749 yards, 13 touchdowns)
DPOY: Jaelan Phillips, LB, Miami Dolphins (61 combined tackles, 16.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, 20 tackles for loss)
MVP: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars (106 passer rating, 4,550 passing yards, 430 rushing yards, 38 passing touchdowns, 4 rushing touchdowns, 9 interceptions)
OROY: Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (72 receptions, 1,085 yards, 10 touchdowns)
DROY: Will Anderson, LB, Houston Texans (74 tackles, 10.5 sacks, two forced fumbles, 12 tackles for loss)
COY: Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers
