2023 NCAA Tournament Preview
And we’re back. The 68-team field for the men’s NCAA Tournament has been set, and there are some great matchups and storylines ahead in what should be an electric three weeks of hoops. Emotions will run high, giants will fall, and another St. Peter’s-like team could emerge as small schools attempt to rattle off upsets and write their own Cinderella stories. There were no notable bid-stealers from conference tournament week, which is a little different tune than the madness that we saw in the last two seasons, where multiple teams with longshot odds for at-large bids were able to skip the selection process altogether and win their respective conference championships. In our third edition of the NCAA tournament preview, we will go over high-profile teams to trust, teams to fade, and sleepers that can bust brackets and make a run. Let’s get after it.
Big-Dogs to Trust
Houston Cougars (1-seed in Midwest Region)
Under Kelvin Sampson, the Cougars have become one of the most consistent, identity-driven, and ultimately successful programs in college basketball. The team once again has a fantastic defense, but this year’s squad also features a very efficient offense, albeit a slow-paced one. The team is led by guard Marcus Sasser, but like many efficient offenses, this team is very well balanced, as evidenced by all five starters scoring 20+ in a game at least once this season. Regarding Houston’s path to the Final Four, they get a favorable draw in the second round as they’ll likely face the winner of Iowa and Auburn, two teams that do not match up well with the Cougars and have not been playing great ball recently. I personally do not think Houston will face a real test until the Elite 8, where they could potentially meet up with Texas or Xavier. This team advanced to the Final Four in 2021 and the Elite 8 last year, and many of the players from those teams are still there. Houston is one of the safest picks to at least replicate what they’ve been able to accomplish the last two seasons. *Note that this prediction is under the assumption that guard Marcus Sasser, currently dealing with a groin injury, is able to play by the second weekend at the latest.
Gonzaga Bulldogs (3-seed in West Region)
Gonzaga is another program that, while not a blue-blood, may as well be due to their sustained success and tournament pedigree under HC Mark Few. The Zags once again fielded the top offense in the country this year, led by 9th-year senior Drew Timme and junior guard Julian Strawther. Gonzaga operates at a quick pace and is very efficient in doing so, as they lead the nation in field goal percentage. They are also top twelve in both assists and team three-point percentage, although they certainly don’t rely on their three-point shooting for offense. The Zags, while still in the West Coast Conference, once again scheduled a tough non-conference in order to beef up their resume and fared quite well, defeating excellent teams in Alabama and Xavier and other tournament teams in Kentucky and Michigan State. They’re also coming off an annihilation of their only true conference rival in St. Mary’s in their championship game, a team that beat them earlier this season. Similar to Houston, Gonzaga is usually not a team that heads home early, as their experienced players and head coach make them a whole lot to handle. Regarding their path in the West region, they could potentially face UCLA in the Sweet 16 in what would be a rematch of the infamous 2021 Final Four duel, which could be problematic due to UCLA’s veteran offense and slow-pace of play, something Gonzaga has struggled playing against this season. That being said, if Gonzaga can get by the Bruins in the Sweet 16, they can go all the way and finally win a title they should arguably have by now under Mark Few.
UConn Huskies (4-seed in West Region)
I realize this pick somewhat conflicts with my trust in Gonzaga, given the fact that the two teams would face each other in the Elite 8 if they were to advance that far. Basically, I’m telling you that I think one of Gonzaga or UConn are going to the Final Four out of the West. UConn got off to a red-hot start to the season, winning their first 14 games and impressively handling Alabama. They then proceeded to lose six of their next eight games as their defense struggled against better offensive teams. The Huskies finished the season strong though, winning nine of their last eleven games. UConn, like Houston and Gonzaga, also have a very efficient offense, as they ranked 6th in offensive efficiency according to KenPom and were 6th in the country in assist-turnover ratio as well. Junior forward Adama Sanogo has been a force for this team all season, averaging nearly 17 a game as a traditional big man though he has the capability to knock down a three if he needs to. Speaking of threes, UConn also features a player who can knock down a bunch of them in a hurry in sophomore guard Jordan Hawkins. While he shoots a good-not-great 36.8% from three, that figure is on a high clip of nearly eight three point attempts a game, making him a threat at all times for opposing defenses. The Huskies are also rock solid on defense and do a good job at limiting three pointers by opposing offenses, as they rank 14th in opposing three-point percentage. The one knock on this team is that they don’t get to the free throw line that often and give up a decent bit of them themselves. This could potentially be a problem for the Huskies, in that that can be a recipe for allowing lesser teams to stick around. I wouldn’t even be surprised if Rick Pitino-led Iona gives them a scare in the first round. However, there’s too much I like about this team to let that get in the way of my trust in them as a legitimate national title contender.
Arizona Wildcats (2-seed in South Region)
The Wildcats were somewhat a surprise team last season in HC Tommy Lloyd’s first season as head coach, as not many foresaw the storied program rebounding so quickly under a guy who had never coached a college team before. The Wildcats earned a 1-seed and advanced to the Sweet 16 before falling to an underseeded Houston team that was able to slow them down and get them to play out of their comfort zone. This season, Arizona once again was a power in college basketball as they were able to go 28–6 and cap off their season with a PAC-12 Tournament title in which they defeated UCLA in the final. Similar to last season, the Cats feature a fearsome frontcourt in juniors Azoulas Tubelis and Omaur Ballo, as the duo average 34 points and 17 rebounds together. Veteran guards Kerr Kriisa and Pelle Larsson both average in double figures, and Texas transfer Courtney Ramey has filled in as the top three-point shooter for the team. What makes me like this Arizona team better than last year’s squad is their success against different styles of teams. They went 3–1 this season in games against UCLA and Tennessee, two teams that play at a very slow tempo and ranked 1st and 2nd in defensive efficiency respectively per KenPom. This was a style Arizona struggled against last year as evidenced by their misfortunes against Houston. Given their ability this season to operate at a high level on the offensive end and also adjust to stingier, slow-tempo teams, this team has the ability to make a deep run. I don’t foresee them having any issues over the first weekend and could potentially face some higher-seeded teams later in what I believe should be the most chaotic region in the bracket (We’ll get to that later.)
Favorites to Fade
Purdue Boilermakers (1-seed in East Region)
Purdue concluded an incredible regular season with a Big Ten Tournament championship over Penn State to earn a one seed in the tournament. Junior big man Zach Edey is a lock for the Wooden Award after averaging 22 points and 12 rebounds a game in a truly dominant season. The Boilers picked up some impressive wins in the non-conference against Marquette, Duke, and Gonzaga while taking care of business in conference play, despite a slight hiccup in mid-February when they lost four of six games. This team ranked 7th in offensive efficiency and 27th in defensive efficiency while playing a difficult schedule and racking up 28 wins. So, what’s not to like? My main issue with this Purdue team is their reliance on star big man Zach Edey and lack of experience in the backcourt. Freshman guards Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith have had very solid seasons, but I don’t think it’s smart to put a lot of trust into a backcourt that hasn’t been there and done that. To make matters worse, Purdue could draw a potential matchup with Memphis in the round of 32, a team with loads of experience in the backcourt in star Kendric Davis and Keonte Kennedy. Purdue had a great season and have lots to be proud of in a Big Ten Championship and likely Wooden Award winner in Edey. Unfortunately for them though, I think their lack of experience in key areas will likely lead to a disappointing finish rather than a trip to Houston.
Kansas Jayhawks (1-seed in West Region)
The reigning national champions are arguably the most battle-tested team in college basketball, as they played a whopping 24 Q1 games this season and managed to win 17 of them. The team is led by veteran wing Jaylen Wilson, who averaged 20 points and 8 rebounds this season as the likely runner-up to Zach Edey for the Wooden Award, and freshman sensation Gradey Dick, a true sharpshooter who is also very capable getting to the rim and holding his own on defense. Add in Texas Tech transfer Kevin McCullar, an outstanding defensive player and the calming presence of point guard Dajuan Harris, who averages over six assists a game, and it’s easy to see why some believe the Jayhawks can repeat as national champs. And to be honest, if the bracket looked a little different, I would’ve maybe had them in the previous section of this article. Simply put, the West region is absolutely brutal, as there are three teams in the West region alone rated higher than Kansas in the KenPom rankings in UConn, UCLA, and Gonzaga. This was a tough draw for the Jayhawks and my caution is mostly due to their path rather than their team. They’ve certainly shown the ability to beat great teams this season and have the experience in the necessary areas to play well this time of year. That being said, I think the Jayhawks fail to repeat as champs, and may get bounced earlier than some think.
Duke Blue Devils (5-seed in East Region)
Duke is by far the highest-seeded team in this section, as 5 seeds aren’t typically looked at as favorites. However, this team has won 9 straight, including the ACC Tournament Championship over Virginia, is 11th in betting odds to win the title, and has become a trendy pick to represent the East in the Final Four. I can see why some like the Blue Devils to do some damage in March, as they’re a completely different team than they were earlier this season. Jeremy Roach and Tyrese Proctor have settled in at the guard spots, Dereck Lively is a monster on the defensive end, and Kyle Filipowski has been a matchup nightmare in his pick-and-roll ability, outside shooting and excellent passing for a big man. Everything seems to be clicking for this young team right now, as they’ve finally figured out their identity and are peaking at just the right time. Or, perhaps, have they peaked too early? The Blue Devils have been playing great ball recently and part of that has been their ability to knock down threes at a much better clip than they had earlier in the season. They’ve been solid defensively all year, but the offense has been what’s truly allowed them to reach another level in recent weeks. The problem though, in my opinion, is that their recent play is their actual best ball and they may stall out against better opponents outside the ACC. Jeremy Roach is the only veteran player among Duke’s major contributors, and he can be somewhat streaky in his shooting and ability to score. I’m not sure how comfortable I am in relying on mostly freshmen to carry this team deep into March, especially when their veteran leader isn’t as consistent as I would like. Also, remember my comments about their recent hot streak of three-point shooting? The Tennessee Vols may be waiting for them in the Round of 32, who just so happen to be the best team in the country at defending the three-point line. Yikes. Maybe their efficiency and great ball-distributing can propel them past some of the better defensive teams in the East region. I think it’s more likely that their young players struggle with the pressure and higher intensity basketball on the defensive side of the floor, leading to an exit in the first weekend.
Sleepers to Keep an Eye On
Michigan State Spartans (7-seed in East Region)
Michigan State enters the tournament as a 7-seed in what I would consider to be the weakest region of the four. The Spartans had an up-and-down season, as they started off shaky in a 5–4 start before settling in and finishing with an 11–8 record in the Big 10 and 19–12 record overall. The team is led by seniors Tyson Walker and Joey Hauser, who both average over 14 points a game and shoot better than 40% from distance. Sparty has also received solid contributions from A.J. Hoggard, Malik Hall and Jaden Akins for most of the season. I think this is a great draw for Michigan State, as they are more experienced than both of their first two potential opponents, USC and Marquette. Boogie Ellis for USC will be tough to keep up with at the guard spot, so that game won’t be easy for Sparty. However, if they can win that game, I really like their chances for an upset against Marquette. Besides the aforementioned edge in experience, Michigan State plays at a very slow pace, ranking outside the top 300 in tempo according to KenPom. Four of Marquette’s six losses this year came against teams outside the top 300 in tempo (Wisconsin, Mississippi State, Purdue, UConn). Granted, they also beat UConn twice this year, but the point still stands; they generally struggle when they’re forced to play at a slow pace. Marquette also ranks 282nd in the country in opponent three-point percentage, which should make for an inviting matchup for Tyson Walker and Joey Hauser. Should Michigan State advance, I like their chances to keep it going and potentially make it to Houston out of the East region.
Arkansas Razorbacks (8-seed in West Region)
Arkansas received an 8-seed in the tournament after a pretty underwhelming season in which they went 20–13 and finished in 10th in the SEC. The Razorbacks were expected to be a national title contender this year after another Elite 8 appearance and an incoming recruiting class that ranked number two in the country and featured the number one overall player in Nick Smith. They also added a pair of forwards in the Mitchell twins from Rhode Island and impact wing Ricky Council IV from Wichita State. They skated through non-conference play pretty easily with just one loss to Creighton before losing their conference opener to abysmal LSU. They proceeded to lose four of their next five games after that and really didn’t find their footing for the rest of the season. Arkansas’ only notable win away from home came against Kentucky in early February when the Wildcats really weren’t playing great basketball. So why am I high on the Razorbacks in this year’s tournament? As mentioned before, Arkansas is typically a good tournament team, as HC Eric Musselman has made it to at least the Sweet 16 in three of the last four tournaments, one with his former school in Nevada and two at Arkansas. They’re also incredibly talented and long, and make their presence felt on the defensive end where they can switch at multiple positions. Being completely honest, I thought this team would start to look like a contender about a month ago, which is when they’ve turned a corner in the last two seasons, but that never happened. Nevertheless, I think they match up well with both Illinois and Kansas and believe their talent and size will give them problems. Do not be surprised when this team is still playing in the second weekend.
NC State Wolfpack (11-seed in South Region)
NC State had a nice rebound season this year, finishing 23–10 and 6th in the ACC after finishing last in the conference in 2022 and setting a program record for losses. The Wolfpack were not going to be able to make such a turnaround without hitting big in the transfer portal, and they did. Sixth-year senior guard Jarkel Joiner from Ole Miss has been a revelation for the Pack, averaging 17 a game and serving as the true point guard the team badly needed last season. NC State also added LaSalle forward Jack Clark and Winthrop big man D.J. “Big Man” Burns in the portal. Clark has been a rock-solid contributor for the team, as he is a great rebounder, can guard multiple positions at 6'8 and also can stroke it from three. D.J. Burns is a big man straight out of a time machine from the 80’s, as his back-to-the-basket game is beautiful to watch and something you just don’t see now in basketball. Burns averaged nearly 13 points a game on the season, but that doesn’t tell the full story. The big man averaged nearly 17 a game after fellow transfer forward Dusan Mahorcic went down with a dislocated knee in early December. And I haven’t even mentioned sophomore guard Terquavion Smith yet, who averaged nearly 18 points a game and earned second-team All-ACC honors. Smith is somewhat of an enigma, as he can shoot it and make it from nearly anywhere on the court, but his quick-trigger style also makes him incredibly inefficient at times. Will all that being said, I think this NC State squad has all the makings of a team that should thrive in March. They have electric guard play, a big man who can be downright dominant at times, a high-octane offense that can get out and run and a real knack for turning teams over and protecting the ball themselves. Creighton is a very good team and the Wolfpack will need to limit the damage from Ryan Kalkbrenner and keep Burns out of foul trouble, but I think they have what it takes to get it done. If they do manage to get past Creighton, they likely get a Baylor team who they can match in guard play and can really punish defensively if their shots are falling. A lot of people thought the Wolfpack were not deserving of a tournament bid, let alone skipping the First Four games in Dayton altogether. An “undeserving” team sneaking into the tournament and going on a run? I can’t say I haven’t heard that one before.
Mid-Major Teams that Can Pull of an Upset
Drake Bulldogs (12-seed in Midwest Region)
First Round Matchup: 5-seed Miami Hurricanes
Drake is the lone representative of the Missouri Valley Conference in this year’s tournament, earning a 12-seed behind guard Tucker DeVries and his nearly 20 points a game. The Bulldogs finished the season hot, winning 13 of their last 14 games and avenging their only loss during that span with a 26-point shellacking of a solid Bradley team in the conference title game. The Bulldogs have also proved they can hang with tourney level teams, as evidenced by their six-point win over Mississippi State back in December. I think they’ll be able to match Miami’s guard play with DeVries and senior guard Roman Penn. The Canes may also be without sophomore forward Norchad Omier in this one, a major contributor and the team’s top rebounder who suffered a knee injury against Duke in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament. I think Drake gets the upset here and becomes one of the not-too-rare 12–5 upsets in this year’s tournament.
Furman Paladins (13-seed in South Region)
First Round Matchup: 4-seed Virginia Cavaliers
I think Furman will win at least one game in the tournament, making Virginia the second ACC team to be on the wrong side of a major first round upset. I haven’t been a big fan of the way Virginia has played down the stretch of this season, as they’ve been almost unwatchable at times on offense and haven’t guarded the three-point line nearly as well as they usually do. Furman has a ton of experienced guards on their team, led by Mike Bothwell, and boast the number 11 scoring offense in the country. Senior forward Jalen Slawson is also having a fantastic season for the Paladins and should be able to counterbalance Virgnia’s big man in Jayden Gardner. The Hoos will also be without senior forward Ben Vander Plas, who unfortunately suffered an injury at the end of the season that will keep him out of play. This is a tough spot for Virginia, and I think they head home early as the Paladins capitalize on their first tournament appearance in 43 years.
Colgate Raiders (15-seed in Midwest Region)
First Round Matchup: 2-seed Texas Longhorns
This is definitely the biggest longshot of the three mid-major teams listed, but if there is a 15-seed who can get it done, its the Raiders. Colgate has become a regular in the tournament recently, earning an auto-bid in each of the last four tournaments. They will get to face a Texas team who admirably grinded through this season after their former HC Chris Beard was dismissed and won the Big 12 tournament, narrowly missing out on a one seed. I think Colgate could be an issue for Texas due to their size and scoring contributions from one through five in the lineup. Every single one of Colgate’s starters averaged in double figures this year, and while Texas did have four guys average in double figures, it is not uncommon for them to rely on a big scoring game from one particular player, whether that be Marcus Carr, Tyrese Hunter, Timmy Allen, or Sir’Jabari Rice. Like I said, this is a longshot and its hard to truly justify an upset like this happening with stats and metrics. I’m just making you aware of the matchup and you can do what you want with it. Because an upset just might happen.
We can all dream, but the odds suggest that no one will have a perfect bracket this year. And your favorite team probably won’t win the whole thing either. But does that mean we can’t enjoy March Madness? Absolutely not. The NCAA Tournament is one of the most entertaining, emotional, and craziest spectacles in sports, as no one truly knows what’s about to happen and everyone has a chance. So why should you take my advice? I don’t know, why not? All of our brackets will most likely be busted by Thursday night anyway.
