2022 NCAA Tournament Preview

After the conclusion of a wild conference tournament week and and exciting regular season of men’s college basketball, the 68-team field for the NCAA tournament has been set. Although the illustrious tournament made its return last year after being cancelled in 2020, this should be the first truly “normal” NCAA tournament since 2019, in that last year’s entire tournament was in a pseudo-bubble around Indianapolis rather than all over the country like years past. Don’t get me wrong, last year’s tournament was a ton of fun to watch and the NCAA did a great job putting it together. But with fans back in full attendance and games scheduled to be played all over the country, the 2022 NCAA tournament should have all the feels of the traditional big dance that we’ve truly been missing.

Before we get into our analysis, let’s address some teams that were able to play their way into the tournament in the last week, and some teams that fell just short. The Indiana Hoosiers are making their first appearance in the big dance since 2016 after picking up much needed wins over Michigan and Indiana in the Big 10 tournament to boost their resume. They will square off against Wyoming in a first four game for a chance at the 12-seed. The Virginia Tech Hokies are another team that was able to punch their ticket after coming into conference tournament week with distant odds to be in the 68-team field. The Hokies went on an improbable run in the ACC tournament and were able to defeat three tournament teams in Notre Dame, North Carolina and finally Duke on their way to the program’s first ACC Tournament Championship. Given the Hokies were only given an 11-seed despite receiving an auto-bid, it seems likely that they truly had to run the table in their conference tournament to get a bid, and that’s what they did. The Richmond Spiders were also able to secure an auto-bid for the tournament with their victory against Davidson in the A-10 championship game on Sunday. The Spiders very likely would not have received an at-large bid either should they have lost to Davidson, effectively stealing a bid from another team worthy of the field (selection committee had Dayton as the first team out of the field, who Richmond beat in the semifinals of their conference tournament).

The Texas A&M Aggies surprisingly did not receive an at-large bid after falling to the Tennessee Volunteers in the SEC Championship game, despite having 9 wins against the top two quadrants and tallying 23 wins overall in what could be considered the best conference in college basketball. I believe the Aggies should’ve received an at-large bid over the Wyoming Cowboys, who, despite having a very solid season, faded a little down the stretch and failed to impress in many of their big games at the end of the season. That being said, this isn’t the first or last time that a deserving team doesn’t receive a bid to the dance. Despite having good overall resumes, teams like Wake Forest, Xavier, Oklahoma and SMU narrowly missed out despite all being in the projected field for portions of the season.

Ok, now let’s focus on the teams in the field and what to watch out for.

Teams to Get Behind

When trying to figure out who to pick to win it all when filling out your bracket, the path of certain teams and the potential matchups they present are arguably just as important as the quality of the teams themselves. A team can have a great regular season and appear destined for a deep run, only to get bounced in the first weekend by an inferior team that they just don’t match up well against. With that said, let’s go through a few teams that are at the top of the seed-lines and have a manageable and realistic path to New Orleans for the Final Four.

Gonzaga Bulldogs (1-seed in West Region)

The Gonzaga Bulldogs will go into this year’s tournament as the top overall seed for the second season in a row and are the most likely team to win the championship according to oddsmakers, and for good reason. While not as good as last year’s team that fell in the title game to Baylor, Gonzaga still has a fantastic team that is balanced and has a mix of elite young talent and veteran experience. While they weren’t tested much in the West Coast Conference, the Zags did schedule an impressive non-conference slate that included wins against Texas, UCLA and Texas Tech. F Drew Timme was arguably the best player in college basketball this season, as the big man has a great feel offensively and often has the team’s offense run through him, dominating with savvy post moves in one-on-one situations and kicking it to open shooters when drawing double-teams. Freshman forward and projected top-3 pick Chet Holmgren is an incredible player as well, as his shot-blocking and shooting ability make him a nightmare for opposing teams on both the offensive and defensive end. Combine that with the calming presence of veterans Andrew Nembhard and Iowa State transfer Rasir Bolton at guard, and you’ve got a legit title team. I will note that Gonzaga could potentially run into a tough matchup early in the bracket with 9-seed Memphis, who have been playing much better recently and have a physically dominantly big man in star freshman Jalen Duren that could be problematic for the Zag’s thinner frontcourt. However, should they advance against Memphis, I like Gonzaga to make a deep run, as they’ll likely get to avenge a couple losses from the regular season should they face Alabama or Duke.

Arizona Wildcats (1-seed in South Region)

Regardless of what Arizona accomplishes in this year’s tournament, it has been a hell of a year for first-year HC Tommy Lloyd. The long-time assistant to Mark Few at Gonzaga took over the Arizona team this past season after the program served it’s one-year probation from the NCAA Tournament. While Arizona is a talented and storied program, no one could have predicted that this team would rattle off 31 wins and secure a one-seed under a first-year head coach. The team is led by sophomore guard Benedict Mathurin, who is having a fantastic season and possesses a rare blend of size, scoring, and playmaking ability while also being a capable defender. The Wildcats also have an outstanding frontcourt manned by sophomore Azuolas Tebelis, who averaged 14 points and nearly 7 rebounds a game, and center Christian Koloko, who averaged 12 points and 7 rebounds a game while also wining PAC-12 Defensive Player of the Year. The team also gets solid contributions from guards Dalen Terry, Pelle Larsson and Justin Kier, who have great size for perimeter players and can knock down open shots. This team presents a mismatch on paper for many squads, as the speed in which they can play on offense while also being aggressive and physical on defense makes them a tough out. The X-factor for this team is the status of G Kerr Kriisa, who sprained his ankle in the conference tournament quarterfinal and was forced to sit out the last two games. HC Tommy Lloyd seems to be optimistic about the sophomore’s guard ability to play in the team’s first tournament game, which would be a huge boost. Although there are some really good teams in the South region such as Illinois, Tennessee and Villanova, I think the Wildcats are in a good spot to make a deep run and potentially get to the championship game, something they haven’t done since 2001.

Kentucky Wildcats (2-seed in East Region)

Kentucky has been a team that has been viewed very highly all season, as many think the Wildcats would have been a one-seed had their backcourt of TyTy Washington and Sahvir Wheeler not had to miss games due to injuries. The Wildcats are a very talented team that is deep at the guard spot with the aforementioned freshman along with Davidson transfer Kellen Grady and Davion Mintz, as well as a National Player of the Year candidate down low in West Virginia transfer Oscar Tshiebwe. While Kentucky had a great season (25–6, 3rd in SEC), they did appear to be vulnerable down the stretch with two losses against Tennessee as well as a loss to Arkansas. However, my position of Kentucky being a legitimate threat to win it all has more to do with the strength, or lack thereof, of their region and path than their ability as a team. The East region appears to be the weakest of the four and save for a potential matchup against Baylor or UCLA in the Elite 8, the Wildcats will likely not face a team that possesses the talent that they have at every position. They match up well with Purdue down low in a potential Sweet 16 matchup, and if they advance in that game, you’d have to like their chances to get all the way to New Orleans. This team has looked like the best team in the country at times this season, and if they can find that gear while avoiding any potential injuries that nagged them during the season, watch out.

Iowa Hawkeyes (5-seed in Midwest Region)

Iowa was not exactly safely in the tournament field as recently as a few weeks ago, as the team struggled early on in the season to beat quality teams on their schedule. Because of this, Iowa was not a team on my radar as a title contender for much of the season despite having good metrics and an experienced team. For whatever reason, this team appeared to find another gear about a month ago in a road game against Ohio State, whom they beat by double digits for their first real quality win they could put under the belt. Since that game in Columbus, the Hawkeyes have not looked back. The team has continued to excel on the offensive end (2nd in country in scoring) while playing with a greater sense of urgency on the defensive end, utilizing their size as a team and forcing turnovers that have allowed for easy transition points. Sophomore forward and likely National Player of the Year winner Keegan Murray has continued to play great down the stretch, while the team has also received valuable contributions from veteran guard Jordan Bohanon and forwards Kris Murray and Patrick McCaffrey. Iowa also has a pretty favorable path in that they would potentially face a Providence team in the round of 32 that has cooled off a bit after a torrid stretch in the middle of the season, and then would likely get Kansas in the Sweet 16, a team that I think they’d match up well against due to the scoring ability of their forwards. Iowa is a team that has passed the eye test in recent years but faded in March due to a lack of toughness and too heavy of a reliance on 3-point shooting. I believe this Hawkeyes team is more well-rounded offensively than previous years and has improved enough defensively to be able to stay in games when their shots aren’t falling, making them a legitimate threat to make the Final Four out of the Midwest.

High-Profile Teams to Fade

Auburn Tigers (2-seed in Midwest Region)

Auburn had a tremendous season by most accounts, as they won the regular season title in the SEC and come into the tournament with a 27–5 record, earning a 2-seed. Despite the great regular season, the Tigers somewhat limped to the finish line, as they went 4–4 down the stretch after a 23–1 start and lost to Texas A&M in their opening game in the conference tournament. The reason for this lackluster finish? Inconsistent play from their backcourt. The backcourt duo of K.D. Johnson and Wendell Green Jr. have been shaky at best in the last month or so, with both really struggling from 3. Junior guard Allen Flanigan has failed to score more than six points in a game since February 12. While the frontcourt of Walker Kessler and freshman sensation Jabari Smith are arguably the best duo in the nation, Auburn will need to get more consistent production from the perimeter if they want to live up to their two seed that was given to them.

Unfortunately for the Tigers, the potential teams that they would face in the round of 32 and Sweet 16 have excellent backcourts in Miami and Wisconsin. It also doesn’t help that Auburn doesn’t have a viable 3-point shooter other than Jabari Smith. Points have been hard to come by recently for the Tigers, and I think their recent struggles combined with a less than ideal path to New Orleans makes them a tough sell to make a deep run.

UCLA Bruins (4-seed in East)

UCLA made a miraculous run in the NCAA Tournament last year, as they were one of the last four teams in the field on Selection Sunday and ended up being a buzzer-beater away from playing in the National Championship game. The Final Four team from last year is largely still intact, as impact players such as Johnny Juzang, Jaime Jacquez, Tyger Campbell and Jules Bernard are back and looking to cap off an impressive regular season with another deep tournament run. With so many key players back and the capability to get hot in March as evidenced from last year’s run, UCLA is a trendy pick to reach the at least the Elite 8 and many see them as a true title contender. With that being said, why should you fade the Bruins in this year’s tournament?

Though this may sound odd, I would fade them for the exact reason many think they will make a run; they’ve done this before, and more importantly, their opponents know they’ve done this before. There is a saying that when a team somewhat unexpectedly nearly climbs all the way to the mountaintop, it is twice as hard getting back to that spot. No one expected UCLA to get all the way to the Final Four last year, which largely allowed them to fly under the radar and feel like they were playing with house money when they were rattling off upset after upset. They also were able to ride an incredible hot streak from F Johnny Juzang, who, while still having a great season, has not been as efficient from the field this year, at least compared to his numbers from last year’s tournament run. UCLA has also been stagnant at times on offense this year in big games, as their plethora of scorers and their past successes sometimes leads to them playing hero ball and not getting good shots. Combine that with a potential matchup with a St. Mary’s squad in the 4/5 game who present a size mismatch and has already proven to be capable of beating talented teams with their win over Gonzaga a couple weeks back, and I think it’s more likely UCLA is packing their bags after the first weekend rather than making another trip to the Final Four.

Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-seed in West Region)

Many expected Texas Tech to take a couple steps back this season when former HC Chris Beard unexpectedly left the program to take the opening job down the road at Texas. Combine that with the departure of star guard Mac McClung, and newly promoted HC Mark Adams was forced to face questions on whether or not he could replicate the gritty, winning culture that Beard had implemented in his short time with the Red Raiders. After year one, I would say the short answer to that question is a resounding yes. The team finished with a 25–9 record and had the number one defense in the country, smothering opposing offenses and forcing teams to play at a slower tempo that many familiar with this team over the years have become accustomed to. The team is lead by senior F Bryson Williams, who averages nearly 14 points a game, but the team gets scoring from a lot of different players. The guard quartet of Terrance Shannon, Jr., Kevin McCullar, Adonis Arms, and Davion Warren all average at least 8.4 points a game, and Oral Roberts transfer Kevin Obanor also averages nearly 10 points a game to go along with 5 rebounds.

So why should you not be confident in a deep run from this team? Matchups. Assuming Texas Tech is able to win their opening game against Montana State, they will likely face an Alabama squad that ranks 12th in the country in adjusted tempo and 14th in offense. As mentioned previously, the Red Raiders like to play at a slower tempo, which is ideal playing in the Big 12 considering only one team in the conference ranks in the top 100 in tempo. That one team in the Big 12 that is in the top 100, however? Kansas, who Texas Tech happens to have 1–2 record against on the year. They also lost to Gonzaga earlier in the season, who ranks 4th in the nation in adjusted tempo. I just think that this a bad matchup for Texas Tech, as Alabama is going to push the pace and likely force Texas Tech to pick up the speed in which they operate on offense, which often leads to turnovers and bad shots for a team that isn’t used to playing fast. Should the Red Raiders get by Alabama, they’d likely face Duke in a Sweet 16 matchup, another team that plays much faster than them and has legit talent at every position. I’m just not too high on Texas Tech in this year’s tournament, despite a great regular season.

Sleepers

Miami Hurricanes (10-seed in Midwest Region)

Miami has largely flown under the radar for most of the season, as the ACC as a whole had a down year this season and likely didn’t get a lot of eyes from viewers who aren’t fans of teams in the conference. However, this Miami team is a fun one to watch. There is a resilience to this squad that stems from their veteran guard play and stability at the top from HC Jim Larranaga. Kam McGusty and Isaiah Wong lead the team in scoring at 17.6 and 15.2 points respectively, while transfer guards Charlie Moore and Jordan Miller also average in double figures. The return of stretch big Sam Waardernburg has also been a huge boost for the team down the stretch, as he provides rebounding and is a threat from 3, shooting 42.6% from distance on the season. As mentioned before, I really like the way this team matches up against both USC and Auburn. While Miami will need to find an answer for the Trojans’ big men Isaiah Mobley and Chevez Goodwin, there’s a clear edge at guard for the Canes. And that’s enough for me to believe they can make a run. Guards often run the show in this tournament, as they’re usually the focal point of offenses and can carry teams singlehandedly in March when they have the hot hand. There’s just something about this team, from their veteran experience to their ability to score points in a hurry and erase deficits, that makes me think they’re going to surprise some people in this tournament.

St. Mary’s Gaels (5-seed in East Region)

St. Mary’s does not fit the technical definition of a sleeper, as they spent a good portion of the season in the top-25 and were able to garner a 5-seed in the tournament. However, they do not play in a Power 6 conference and have long been playing in the shadow of their West Coast Conference counterpart, Gonzaga. That being said, do not underestimate this Gaels’ squad. If you like ball-movement, offense at all levels and textbook defense, this is the team for you. St. Mary’s is long and plays at a methodical pace on the offensive side, emphasizing ball movement and sharing the ball in order to get good looks at the basket. Senior PG Tommy Kuhse and Senior F Matthias Taas lead the way for the Gaels, as they both represent the old-school prototypes at their respective positions. Kuhse is a pass-first guard who does a great job at taking care of the ball, while Taas has a sweet arsenal of post moves that makes even elite rim protectors look silly at times, as evidenced by his success against Chet Holmgren and the 13 points he scored against the Zags in their win back in late February. While their potential earlier matchups against Indiana and UCLA feature teams that also play at a slow pace, I think both teams will get very flustered by the Gaels’ elite defense and force them to take bad shots, which will allow for players such as senior G Logan Johnson to get out in transition where they really thrive. With all this said, I’m not guaranteeing this team is gonna make the Final Four. I will however predict that the Gaels will make it further in the tournament than many seem to think at the moment and will not be surprised when they’re still in it by the second weekend.

Chattanooga Mocs (13-seed in South Region)

Chattanooga may be a team that you’ve heard mentioned as a potential Cinderella team in this year’s tournament, and there’s good reason for that. The Mocs have some firepower at the top of their lineup, as they have a guard in sophomore Malachi Smith who may be one of the best players in the tournament, averaging over 20 points a game and shooting over 41% from 3. They also have a super senior guard in David Jean Baptiste who can score as well, averaging nearly 15 points a game and shooting 37 percent from 3 on a robust 7.4 attempts a game. This is the type of backcourt that should be able to go toe-to-toe with first round matchup Illinois’ backcourt of shooters in Alfonso Plummer, Trent Frazier and Jacob Grandison. On top of that, they have a big man in Kansas transfer Silvio de Sousa who should help in neutralizing superstar Kofi Cockburn for the Illini. This is just a great matchup in my opinion for the Mocs, as their style of inside-out basketball could pose a problem for Illinois should they struggle to shoot the ball and fail to contain de Sousa. Chattanooga would also get to face a Houston team in the round of 32 who, while talented and capable of playing well in March as evidenced by their Final Four run last year, are not very battle-tested and have struggled to replace the production of G Marcus Sasser, who likely will not be available for the Cougars in the tournament. I get it if you don’t think Illinois will lose early again in the tournament after another successful season, or think that Houston’s track record in the tournament doesn’t point to them losing to a mid-major. Just don’t be surprised when the Mocs are still playing after the first weekend of games concludes.

Conclusion

This should be a very exciting tournament. Unlike last year, in which there were two clear favorites to win the title in Gonzaga and Baylor, this year’s field appears to be wide open, as the top seeds really don’t seem to be that far separated from the teams on the middle seed lines. There will be a lot of upsets, and teams that many people aren’t high on and have bad track records (like Texas) will probably make deep runs for no reason that’ll make you feel like an idiot. However, don’t let that ruin the enjoyment of the truly awesome spectacle that is the NCAA Tournament. This article is an attempt to give you good advice on who to select to make a run and give you a better chance at winning your bracket pool. But at the end of the day, none of us really have any idea of what will truly happen. Hence the iconic term to describe it, “March Madness”.